Hypothetical Thinking: Dual Processes in Reasoning and Judgement (Essays in Cognitive Psychology), by Jonathan St. B. T. Evans
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Hypothetical Thinking: Dual Processes in Reasoning and Judgement (Essays in Cognitive Psychology), by Jonathan St. B. T. Evans
Free PDF Ebook Hypothetical Thinking: Dual Processes in Reasoning and Judgement (Essays in Cognitive Psychology), by Jonathan St. B. T. Evans
Hypothetical thought involves the imagination of possibilities and the exploration of their consequences by a process of mental simulation. Using a recently developed theoretical framework called Hypothetical Thinking Theory, Jonathan St. B. T. Evans provides an integrated theoretical account of a wide range of psychological studies on hypothesis testing, reasoning, judgement and decision making.
Hypothetical thinking theory is built on three key principles, implemented in a revised and updated version of Evans' well-known heuristic–analytic theory of reasoning. The central claim of this book is that this theory can provide an integrated account of some apparently very diverse phenomena including confirmation bias in hypothesis testing, acceptance of fallacies in deductive reasoning, belief biases in reasoning and judgement, biases of statistical judgement and a number of characteristic findings in the study of decision making. The author also provides broad ranging discussion of cognitive biases, human rationality and dual-process theories of higher cognition.
Hypothetical Thinking draws on and develops arguments first proposed in Evans’ earlier work from this series, Bias in Human Reasoning. In the new theory, however, cognitive biases are attributed equally to analytic and heuristic processing and a much wider range of phenomena are reviewed and discussed. It will therefore be of great interest to researchers and post-graduates in psychology and the cognitive sciences, as well as to undergraduate students looking for a comprehensive review of current work on reasoning and decision-making.
Hypothetical Thinking: Dual Processes in Reasoning and Judgement (Essays in Cognitive Psychology), by Jonathan St. B. T. Evans- Amazon Sales Rank: #6921461 in Books
- Brand: Evans, Jonathan
- Published on: 2015-05-09
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.10" h x .50" w x 6.10" l, .0 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 216 pages
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0 of 1 people found the following review helpful. Exemplar of bias against the value of System 1 processing By T Crichton Unfortunately, 'Hypothetical Thinking' serves to further devalue the long-ignored, and crucial role, of abstract-associative processes in human thought, and reasoning. Evans main motivation with this work, is to suggest that major relevance of 'system 2' processing in hypothetical thinking. Though he is carefully manipulative in his presentations, a bit of analysis reveals that his argument falls short of 'rational'. Evan's strategy is to discuss what he calls 'hypothetical thinking' in a context which is consistent with his arbitrary 'mental model making', thereby tautologically limiting the notion of 'hypothetical thinking' to the STM/Working memory complex (which is essentially what he implies to be 'System 2'). With his version of 'hypothetical thinking' established, Evans can avoid the contribution of associative-heuristic processes towards 'hypothetical thinking' , as it relates to the generation of hypotheticals, in describing (even partially) associative-based phenomena. For example, in proposing some general and 'probable' explanation to DOG --> 9 LIVES. Which, in this case, under the general form, A ---> B can result in the suggestion of the hypothetical A ---> Superstitious quality(Probabilistic Opposite (A)). Evans, essentially avoids the indisputably ubiquitous role of idea generation (system 1 process), in the design of hypotheticals. Of course, System 2 will ultimately be involved in the design of all hypotheticals (in some almost exclusively), it almost literally, can't think outside of it's own box. Certainly, any reasonable person can see, that there are more 'ifs' that can be generated via the assistance of long-term-memory (System 1), than can be generated through our limited working memory system (System 2), alone. And while logic certainly, has a role in hypothetical thought, I'm sorry to report that this book is another attempt to confine human ingenuity to purely logical (or perhaps pseudo-logical) STM/Working complex, and it is disrespecting to both the hypothetical and creative processes. There is a good reason that associative memory correlates (which Evans tends to imply, do not) highly with general intelligence. Maybe "IF" Evan's had a premise that wasn't as partial, his position would be plausible.Of course, dual process models are all highly arbitrary constructs, but if one must bear to stand dual process, I would look into other accounts.
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